Publications

K Mensah, JM Heraud, S Takahashi, AK Winter, Charlotte Jessica Eland Metcalf, Amy Wesolowski. 2019. Seasonal gaps in measles vaccination coverage in Madagascar. Vaccine. 37 (18): 2511-2519.

C Edson Utazi, Julia Thorley, Victor A Alegana, Matthew J Ferrari, Saki Takahashi, C Jessica E Metcalf, Justin Lessler, Felicity T Cutts, Andrew J Tatem. 2019. Mapping vaccination coverage to explore the effects of delivery mechanisms and inform vaccination strategies. Nature Communications. 10 (1): 1633.

Cara E Brook, Hafaliana C Ranaivoson, Christopher C Broder, Andrew A Cunningham, Jean‐Michel Héraud, Alison J Peel, Louise Gibson, James LN Wood, C Jessica Metcalf, Andrew P Dobson. 2019. Disentangling serology to elucidate henipa‐and filovirus transmission in Madagascar fruit bats. Journal of Animal Ecology.

Shaun A Truelove, Matthew Graham, William J Moss, C Jessica E Metcalf, Matthew J Ferrari, Justin Lessler. 2019. Characterizing the impact of spatial clustering of susceptibility for measles elimination. Vaccine. 37 (5): 732-741.

C Jessica Metcalf, Britt Koskella. 2019. Protective microbiomes can limit the evolution of host pathogen defense. bioRxiv. P 665265

C Jessica E Metcalf, Lucas P Henry, Maria Rebolleda-Gomez, Britt Koskella. 2019. Why evolve reliance on the microbiome for timing of ontogeny? bioRxiv. P 665182.

Norma M Morella, Francis Cheng-Hsuan Weng, Pierre M Joubert, C Jessica E Metcalf, Steven Lindow, Britt Koskella. 2019. Successive passaging of a plant-associated microbiome reveals robust habitat and host genotype-dependent selection. bioRxiv. P 627794.

Katie Hampson, Francesco Ventura, Rachel Steenson, Rebecca Mancy, Caroline Trotter, Laura Cooper, Bernadette Abela-Ridder, Lea Knopf, Moniek Ringenier, Tenzin Tenzin, Sowath Ly, Arnaud Tarantola, Ronelngar Moyengar, Assandi Oussiguéré, Bassirou Bonfoh, DH Ashwath Narayana, Mysore Kalappa Sudarshan, Matthew Muturi, Athman Mwatondo, Gati Wambura, Soa Fy Andriamandimby, Laurence Baril, Glenn T Edosoa, Abdallah Traoré, Sarah Jayme, Johann Kotzé, Amila Gunesekera, Nakul Chitnis, Jan Hattendorf, Mirjam Laager, Monique Lechenne, Jakob Zinsstag, Joel Changalucha, Zac Mtema, Ahmed Lugelo, Kennedy Lushasi, Onphirul Yurachai, Charlotte Jessica E Metcalf, Malavika Rajeev, Jesse Blanton, Galileu Barbosa Costa, Nandini Sreenivasan, Ryan Wallace, Deborah Briggs, Louise Taylor, Samuel M Thumbi, Nguyen Thi Thanh Huong. 2019. The potential effect of improved provision of rabies post-exposure prophylaxis in Gavi-eligible countries: a modelling study.The Lancet Infectious Diseases. 19 (1): 102-111.

Matthew Graham, Amy K Winter, Matthew Ferrari, Bryan Grenfell, William J Moss, Andrew S Azman, C Jessica E Metcalf, Justin Lessler. 2019. Measles and the canonical path to elimination. American Association for the Advancement of Science. 364 (6440): 584-587.

Joshua Kaminsky, Lindsay T Keegan, C Jessica E Metcalf, Justin Lessler. Measles and the canonical path to elimination. 2019. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B. 374 (1776): 20180279.

Miller, I.F. and C.J.E. Metcalf. 2019. Evolving resistance to pathogens. Science. 363 (6433): 1277-1278.

Brooke A Bozick, Colin J Worby, C Jessica E Metcalf. 2019. Phylogeography of rubella virus in Asia: vaccination and demography shape synchronous outbreaks. Epidemics. P 100346.

Cara E Brook, Hafaliana C Ranaivoson, Daudet Andriafidison, Mahefatiana Ralisata, Julie Razafimanahaka, Jean-Michel Héraud, Andrew P Dobson, C Jessica Metcalf. 2019. Population trends for two Malagasy fruit bats. Biological Conservation. 234: 165-171.

Felana A Ihantamalala, Feno MJ Rakotoarimanana, Tanjona Ramiadantsoa, Jean Marius Rakotondramanga, Gwenaëlle Pennober, Fanjasoa Rakotomanana, Simon Cauchemez, Charlotte JE Metcalf, Vincent Herbreteau, Amy Wesolowski. 2018. Spatial and temporal dynamics of malaria in Madagascar. Malaria journal. 17(1): 58.

Malavika Rajeev, Glenn Edosoa, Chantal Hanitriniaina, Soa Fy Andriamandimby, Helene Guis, Ravo Ramiandrasoa, Rila Ratovoson, Laurence Randrianasolo, Mamitiana Andriamananjara, Jean-Michel Heraud, Laurence Baril, C Jessica E Metcalf, Katie Hampson. 2018. Healthcare utilization, provisioning of post-exposure prophylaxis, and estimation of human rabies burden in Madagascar. Vaccine.

C Jessica E Metcalf, Andrea L Graham. 2018. Schedule and magnitude of reproductive investment under immune trade-offs explains sex differences in immunity. Nature Communications. 9(1): 4391.

Benjamin D Dalziel, Stephen Kissler, Julia R Gog, Cecile Viboud, Ottar N Bjørnstad, C Jessica E Metcalf, Bryan T Grenfell. 2018. Urbanization and humidity shape the intensity of influenza epidemics in US cities. Science. 362(6410): 75-79.

Joaquin M Prada, C Jessica E Metcalf, Matthew J Ferrari. 2018. Improving measles incidence inference using age-structured serological data. Epidemiology & Infection. 146(13): 1699-1706.

Felana Angella Ihantamalala, Vincent Herbreteau, Feno MJ Rakotoarimanana, Jean Marius Rakotondramanga, Simon Cauchemez, Bienvenue Rahoilijaona, Gwenaëlle Pennober, Caroline O Buckee, Christophe Rogier, Charlotte Jessica Eland Metcalf, Amy Wesolowski. 2018. Estimating sources and sinks of malaria parasites in Madagascar. Nature Communications. 9(1): 3897.

Madeleine C Thomson, C Jessica E Metcalf, Simon J Mason Contributors, Adrian M Tompkins, Mary Hayden. 2018. Connecting climate information with health outcomes. Climate Information for Public Health Action. P 70-86.

Madeleine C Thomson Contributors, Delia Grace, Ruth DeFries, C Jessica E Metcalf, Hannah Nissan, Alessandra Giannini. 2018. Climate impacts on disasters, infectious diseases and nutrition. Climate Information for Public Health Action. P 44-69.

Saki Takahashi, C Jessica E Metcalf, Yuzo Arima, Tsuguto Fujimoto, Hiroyuki Shimizu, H Rogier van Doorn, Tan Le Van, Yoke-Fun Chan, Jeremy J Farrar, Kazunori Oishi, Bryan T Grenfell. 2018. Epidemic dynamics, interactions and predictability of enteroviruses associated with hand, foot and mouth disease in Japan. Journal of The Royal Society Interface. 15(146): 20180507.

Amy Wesolowski, Amy Winter, Andrew J Tatem, Taimur Qureshi, Kenth Engø-Monsen, Caroline O Buckee, Derek AT Cummings, C Jessica E Metcalf. 2018. Measles outbreak risk in Pakistan: exploring the potential of combining vaccination coverage and incidence data with novel data-streams to strengthen control. Epidemiology & Infection. 146(12): 1575-1583.

Amy K Winter, Amy P Wesolowski, Keitly J Mensah, Miora Bruna Ramamonjiharisoa, Andrianmasina Herivelo Randriamanantena, Richter Razafindratsimandresy, Simon Cauchemez, Justin Lessler, Matt J Ferrari, C Jess E Metcalf, Jean-Michel Héraud. 2018. Revealing Measles Outbreak Risk With a Nested Immunoglobulin G Serosurvey in Madagascar. American journal of epidemiology. 187(10): 2219-2226.

Rachel E Baker, Ayesha S Mahmud, C Jessica E Metcalf. 2018. Dynamic response of airborne infections to climate change: predictions for varicella. Climatic Change. 148(4): 547-560.

Matthew Graham, Jonathan E Suk, Saki Takahashi, C Jessica Metcalf, A Paez Jimenez, Vladimir Prikazsky, Matthew J Ferrari, Justin Lessler. 2018. Challenges and opportunities in disease forecasting in outbreak settings: a case study of measles in Lola Prefecture, Guinea. The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene. 98(5): 1489-1497.

Amy K Winter, Micaela E Martinez, Felicity T Cutts, William J Moss, Matt J Ferrari, Amalie McKee, Justin Lessler, Kyla Hayford, Jacco Wallinga, C Jess E Metcalf. 2018. Benefits and challenges in using seroprevalence data to inform models for measles and rubella elimination. The Journal of infectious diseases. 218(3): 355-364.

C Edson Utazi, Julia Thorley, Victor A Alegana, Matthew J Ferrari, Saki Takahashi, C Jessica E Metcalf, Justin Lessler, Andrew J Tatem. 2018. High resolution age-structured mapping of childhood vaccination coverage in low and middle income countries. Vaccine. 36(12): 1583-1591.

Caroline O Buckee, Maria IE Cardenas, June Corpuz, Arpita Ghosh, Farhana Haque, Jahirul Karim, Ayesha S Mahmud, Richard J Maude, Keitly Mensah, Nkengafac Villyen Motaze, Maria Nabaggala, Charlotte Jessica Eland Metcalf, Sedera Aurélien Mioramalala, Frank Mubiru, Corey M Peak, Santanu Pramanik, Jean Marius Rakotondramanga, Eric Remera, Ipsita Sinha, Siv Sovannaroth, Andrew J Tatem, Win Zaw. 2018. Productive disruption: opportunities and challenges for innovation in infectious disease surveillance. BMJ global health. 3 (1): e000538.

CE Utazi, Julia Thorley, VA Alegana, Matthew Joseph Ferrari, Kristine Nilsen, Saki Takahashi, Charlotte Jessica Eland Metcalf, Justin Lessler, AJ Tatem. 2018. A spatial regression model for the disaggregation of areal unit based data to high-resolution grids with application to vaccination coverage mapping. Statistical methods in medical research.

AK Winter, S Pramanik, J Lessler, M Ferrari, Bryan T Grenfell, Charlotte Jessica Eland Metcalf. 2018. Rubella vaccination in India: identifying broad consequences of vaccine introduction and key knowledge gaps. Epidemiology & Infection. 146 (1): 65-77.

Liana T Burghardt, Charlotte Jessica Eland Metcalf. 2017. The evolution of senescence in annual plants: The importance of phenology and the potential for plasticity. The Evolution of Senescence in the Tree of Life. Feb; P 284-302.

Liana T Burghardt, C Jessica E Metcalf. 2017. 14 The Evolution of Senescence in Annual Plants. The Evolution of Senescence in the Tree of Life. Feb; P 284.

Max SY Lau, Gavin J Gibson, Hola Adrakey, Amanda McClelland, Steven Riley, Jon Zelner, George Streftaris, Sebastian Funk, Jessica Metcalf, Benjamin D Dalziel, Bryan T Grenfell. 2017. A mechanistic spatio-temporal framework for modelling individual-to-individual transmission—With an application to the 2014-2015 West Africa Ebola outbreak. PLoS computational biology. Oct; 13(10).

AS Mahmud, N Alam, Charlotte Jessica Eland Metcalf. 2017. Drivers of measles mortality: the historic fatality burden of famine in Bangladesh. Epidemiology & Infection. Dec; 145(16): 3361-3369.

Britt Koskella, Lindsay J Hall, C Jessica E Metcalf. 2017. The microbiome beyond the horizon of ecological and evolutionary theory. Nature Ecology & Evolution. Nov; 1(11): 1606.

Amy Wesolowski, Elisabeth zu Erbach-Schoenberg, Andrew J Tatem, Christopher Lourenço, Cecile Viboud, Vivek Charu, Nathan Eagle, Kenth Engø-Monsen, Taimur Qureshi, Caroline O Buckee, C.J.E Metcalf. 2017. Multinational patterns of seasonal asymmetry in human movement influence infectious disease dynamics. Nature communications. 8(1): 2069.

Metcalf, C.J.E., Tate, A.T., Graham, A.L. 2017. Demographically framing tradeoffs between sensitivity and specificity illuminates selection on immunity. Nature Ecology and Evolution 

Brook CE, Bai Y, Yu EO, Ranaivoson HC, Shin H, Dobson AP, Metcalf CJE, Kosoy MY, Dittmar K. 2017. Elucidating transmission dynamics and host-parasite-vector relationships for rodent-borne Bartonella spp. in Madagascar. Epidemics. Sep;20:56-66.

Metcalf CJE, Walter KS, Wesolowski A, Buckee CO, Shevliakova E, Tatem AJ, Boos WR, Weinberger DM, Pitzer VE. 2017. Identifying climate drivers of infectious disease dynamics: recent advances and challenges ahead. Proc Biol Sci. Aug 16;284(1860).

Takahashi S, Metcalf CJE, Ferrari MJ, Tatem AJ, Lessler J. 2017. The geography of measles vaccination in the African Great Lakes region. Nat Commun. May 25;8:15585.

Metcalf, C.J.E, Mensah, K., Wesolowski, A.P., Winter, A.K., Ramamonjiharisoa, B., Takahashi, S., Randriamanantena, A., Razafindratsimandresy, R., Heraud, J-M. 2017. Seasonal determinants of access to care: implications for measles outbreak risk in Madagascar. The Lancet. 389, S14.

Koskella B, Meaden S, Crowther WJ, Leimu R, Metcalf CJE. 2017. A signature of tree health? Shifts in the microbiome and the ecological drivers of horse chestnut bleeding canker disease. New Phytol. Jul;215(2):737-746.

Prada JM, Metcalf CJE, Takahashi S, Lessler J, Tatem AJ, Ferrari M. 2017. Demographics, epidemiology and the impact of vaccination campaigns in a measles-free world – Can elimination be maintained? Vaccine. Mar 13;35(11):1488-1493.

Mahmud AS, Metcalf CJ, Grenfell BT. 2017. Comparative dynamics, seasonality in transmission, and predictability of childhood infections in Mexico. Epidemiol Infect. Feb;145(3):607-625.

Buckee CO, Tatem AJ, Metcalf CJ. 2017. Seasonal Population Movements and the Surveillance and Control of Infectious Diseases. Trends Parasitol. Jan;33(1):10-20.

Metcalf CJ, Mina MJ, Winter AK, Grenfell BT. 2017. Opportunities and challenges of a World Serum Bank – Authors’ reply. Lancet. Jan 21;389(10066):252.

Wesolowski A., Buckee C.O., Engø-Monsen K., Metcalf C.J.E. 2016. Connecting Mobility to Infectious Diseases: The Promise and Limits of Mobile Phone Data. J Infect Dis. Dec 1;214(suppl_4):S414-S420.

Lessler, J., Metcalf, C.J.E., Cutts, F.T. & Grenfell, B.T. 2016. Impact on Epidemic Measles of Vaccination Campaigns Triggered by Disease Outbreaks or Serosurveys: A Modeling Study. Plos Med. Oct 1;13(10):e1002144.

Gandon S, Day T, Metcalf CJ, Grenfell BT. 2016. Forecasting Epidemiological and Evolutionary Dynamics of Infectious Diseases. Trends Ecol Evol. Oct;31(10):776-88.

Metcalf CJ, Barrett A. 2016. Invasion Dynamics of Teratogenic Infections in Light of Rubella Control: Implications for Zika Virus. PLoS Curr. Aug 16;8.

Lessler J, Chaisson LH, Kucirka LM, Bi Q, Grantz K, Salje H, Carcelen AC, Ott CT, Sheffield JS, Ferguson NM, Cummings DA, Metcalf CJ, Rodriguez-Barraquer I. 2016. Assessing the Global Threat from Zika Virus. Science. Aug 12;353(6300):aaf8160.

Van Boeckel TP, Takahashi S, Liao Q, Xing W, Lai S, Hsiao V, Liu F, Zheng Y, Chang Z, Yuan C, Metcalf CJ, Yu H, Grenfell BT. 2016. Hand, foot and mouth disease in China: Critical Community Size and Spatial Vaccination Strategies. Sci Rep. Apr 29;6:25248.

Meaden, S., Metcalf, C.J.E., Koskella, B.T. 2016. The effects of host age and spatial location on bacterial community composition in the English Oak tree (Quercus robur). Environmental Microbiology Reports. 10, 1758-2229.

Fournier-Level, A., Perry, E.O., Wang, J., Braun, P.T., Migneault, A., Cooper, M.D., Metcalf, C.J.E., Schmitt,
J. 2016. Predicting the evolutionary dynamics of seasonal adaptation to novel climates in Arabidopsis thaliana. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2, 201517456.

Wesolowski, A, Mensah, K., Brook, C.A., Andrianjamasy, M., Winter, A., Buckee, C.O., Razandratsimandresy,
R., Tatem, A.J., Heraud, J-M., Metcalf, C.J.E. 2016. Introduction of Rubella-Containing-Vaccine to Madagascar: implications for roll-out across low-income countries. Journal of the Royal Society Interface. 13, 117.

Metcalf, C.J.E., Farrar, J., Cutts, F.T., Basta, N., Graham, A.L., Lessler, J., Ferguson, N., Burke, D., Grenfell, B.T. 2016. Serological surveys: Generating key insight into the changing global landscape of infectious disease. Lancet. 16, 30164-7.

Metcalf, C.J.E. 2016. Invisible trade-offs: van Noordwijk & de Jong and life history evolution. American Naturalist. 87 iii.

Takahashi, S., Liao, Q., Van Boeckel, T.P., Xing, W., Sun, J., Hsiao, V.Y., Metcalf, C.J.E., Chang, Z., Liu, F., Zhang, J., Wu, J.T., Cowling, B.J., Leung, G.M., Farrar, J.J., van Doorn, H.R., Grenfell, B.T., Hongjie, Y. 2016. Hand, foot, and mouth disease in China: modelling epidemic dynamics of enterovirus serotypes and implications for vaccination. PLoS Medicine. 13, e1001958.

Dalziel, B., Bjornstad, O.N., Van Panhuis, W.G., Burke, D.S., Metcalf, C.J.E., Grenfell, B.T. 2016. Persistent chaos of measles epidemics in the prevaccination United States caused by a small change in seasonal transmission patterns. PloS Computational Biology. 12, 2.

Bughardt, L., Metcalf, C.J.E. & Donohue, K. 2016. A cline in seed dormancy can conserve the environment
experienced during reproduction across a range of Arabidopsis thaliana. American Journal of Botany. 103, 47-49.

Metcalf, C.J.E., Graham, A.L., Martinez-Bakker, M., Childs, D.Z. 2016. Opportunities and challenges of Integral Projection Models for modeling infectious diseases and their dynamics. Journal of Animal Ecology. 83, 343-355.

Metcalf, C.J.E. , Ferrari, M., Graham, A.L., Grenfell, B.T. 2015. Understanding herd immunity. Trends in Im-
munology. 36, 753-755.

Griffiths, E., Fairlie-Clarke, K., Allen, J.E., Metcalf, C.J.E., Graham, A.L. 2015. Bottom-up control of malaria
population dynamics in mice co-infected with lung-migratory nematodes. Ecology Letters. 18, 1387-1396.

Birger, R., Kouyos, R.D., Cohen, T., Griths, E., Huijben, S., Mina, M., Volkova, V., Grenfell, B.T., Metcalf, C.J.E. 2015. The impact of coinfection on anti-microbial chemotherapy and drug resistance. Trends in Microbiology. 23, 537-544.

Wesolowski, A.*, Metcalf, C.J.E.*, Kombich, J., Grenfell, B.T., Bjornstad, O.N., Lessler, J., Eagle, N., Tatem, A.J. & Buckee, C.O. 2015. Quantifying seasonal population fluxes driving rubella transmission dynamics using mobile phone data. PNAS. [*these authors contributed equally] 112, 11114-11119.

Metcalf, C.J.E., Ellner, S.P., Childs, D.Z., McMahon, S.M., Merow, C., Jongejans, E., Salguero-Gomez, R. & Rees, M. 2015. Statistical modelling of annual variation for inference on stochastic population dynamics using Integral Projection Models. Methods in Ecology and Evolution. 6, 1007-1017.

Metcalf, C.J.E., Bughardt, L.T., Koons, D.N. 2015. Avoiding the crowds: the evolution of plastic response to
seasonal cues in a density dependent world. Journal of Ecology. 103, 819-828.

Mina, M., Metcalf, C.J.E., de Swart, R., Osterhaus, A., Grenfell, B.T. 2015. Long-term measles-induced immune-amnesia explains major reductions in all-cause childhood mortality following measles vaccination. Science. 348, 694-699.

Metcalf, C.J.E., Tatem, A.J., Bjornstad, O.N., Lessler, J., OReilly, K., Takahashi, S., Cutts, F., & Grenfell, B.T.
2014. Transport networks and inequities in vaccination: remoteness shapes measles vaccine coverage and prospects for elimination across Africa. Epidemiology and Infection. 1-10.

Metcalf, C.J.E., Birger, R., Funk, S., Kouyos, R.D., Lloyd-Smith, J., Janzen, V. 2015. Five challenges in the
evolution and infectious diseases. Epidemics. 10, 40-44.

Petra Klepac, Sebastian Funk, T Deirdre Hollingsworth, C Jessica E Metcalf, Katie Hampson. 2015. Six challenges in the eradication of infectious diseases. Epidemics. 10, 97-101.

Cunniffe, N., Koskella, B., Gottwald, T., Parnell, S. Van den Bosch, F. Metcalf, C.J.E., Gilligan, C. A. 2015. Thirteen challenges in modelling plant diseases. Epidemics. 10, 6-10.

Metcalf, C.J.E. , Lessler, J. & Edmunds, W.J. 2015. Six challenges in policy for modeling. Epidemics. 10, 93-96.

Metcalf, C.J.E., Andreasen, V., Bjornstad, O.N., Eames, K.T., Edmunds, W.J., Hollingsworth, T.D., Lessler, J.,
Viboud, C. & Grenfell, B.T. 2015. Seven challenges in modeling vaccine preventable diseases. Epidemics. 10, 11-15.

Takahashi, S., Metcalf, C.J.E., Ferrari, M., Truelove, S., Grenfell, B.T., & Lessler, J. 2015. Confronting the Growing Risk of a Post-Ebola Epidemic of Childhood Infections Science 347 1240-1242.

Heesterbeck, J.A.P., Anderson, R., Dye, C., Eames, K., Edmunds, J., Funk, S., Hollingsworth, D., House, T., Isham,
V. , Lessler, J., Lloyd-Smith, J., Metcalf, C.J.E., Pellis, L., Pulliam, J., Roberts, M., Isaac Newton Institute IDD group. 2015. Modelling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health. Science 347 aaa4339

Morris, S., Pitzer, V.E., Viboud, C., Metcalf, C.J.E., Grenfell, B.T. 2015. Demographic buering: titrating the
eects of birth rate and imperfect immunity on epidemic dynamics. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 12
s20141245

Lloyd-Smith, J.O., Mollison, D., Metcalf, C.J.E., Heesterbeck, J.A.P. 2015 Challenges in modeling infectious disease dynamics: preface. Epidemics 10:1-5

Perkins, T.A., Metcalf, C.J.E., Grenfell, B.T., Tatem, A.J. 2015. Chikungunya: forecasting the invasion landscape
in the Americas PloS Currents

Metcalf, C.J.E. & Jones, J.H. 2015. The evolutionary dynamics of timing of maternal immunity: evaluating the
role of age-specic mortality Journal of Evolutionary Biology 28 493-502

Bughardt, L., Metcalf, C.J.E., Wilczek, A. Johanna Schmitt, J. & Donohue, K. 2015 Predicting plant life cycles in
seasonal environments American Naturalist 185 212-227

Pitzer, V.E., Viboud, C., Alonso, W.J., Wilcox, T., Metcalf, C.J.E., Steiner, C.A., Panozzo, C.A. & Grenfell, B.T.
2015 Environmental drivers of the spatiotemporal dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus in the United States. PloS
Pathogens 11 e1004591-e1004591

Caudron, Q., Mahmud, A.S., Metcalf, C.J.E., Gottfreosson, M., Viboud, C., Cli, A.D., Grenfell, B.T. 2015
Predictability in highly stochastic systems: measles in small populations. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 12: 20141125

Salguero-Gomez, R., Jones, O.R., Archer, C.R., Buckley, Y.M., Che-Castaldo, J., Caswell, H., Scheuerlien, A.,
Conde, D.A., Baudisch, A., Brinks, E., de Buhr, H., Farack, C., France, G., Hartmann, A., Henning, A., Hoppe,
G., Romer, G., Runge, J., Ruo, T., Wille, J., Zeh, S., Vierigg, D., Altwegg, R., Colchero, F., Dong, M., Hodgson,
D., de Kroon, H., Lebreton, J-D., Metcalf, C.J.E., Neel, M., Takada, T., Valverde, T., Velez-Espino, L.A., Wardle,
G.M., Franco, M. & Vaupel, J. 2015 The COMPADRE Plant Matrix Database: an Open Online Repository for Plant
Demography. Journal of Ecology 103: 202-218

Klepac, P., Funk, S., Hollingsworth, T.D., Metcalf, C.J.E., Hampson, K. 2015 Six challenges in the eradication of
infectious diseases. Epidemics 10:97-101

Merow, C., Dahlgren, J.P., Metcalf, C.J.E., Childs, D.Z., Evans, M.E.K., Jongejans, E., Record, S., Rees, M.,
Salguero-Gomez, R. & McMahon, S.M. 2014. Advancing population ecology with integral projection models: a
practical guide Methods in Ecology and Evolution 4 195-200

Kouyos, R.D.*, Metcalf, C.J.E.*, Birger, R.*, Klein, E.Y., Day, T., Huijben, S., Cohen, T., Greenhouse, B., Wale,
N., Mideo, N., Nimalan, A., Grenfell, B.T., Pollitt, L.,C., Bogich, T.L., Brower, C., zur Wiesch, P.A., Read, A.,
Smith, D., Bonhoeer, S. 2014 The path of least resistance: aggressive or moderate treatment? Proceedings of the
Royal Society of London – B 281 20140566 [*contributed equally]

Nimalan Arinaminpathy, Charlotte Jessica E Metcalf, Bryan T Grenfell. Viral Infections of Humans

Rozhnova, G., Metcalf, C.J.E. & Grenfell, B.T. 2013 Characterizing the dynamics of rubella relative to measles:
the role of stochasticity. 2013 Journal of the Royal Society Interface 10 20130643

Flegg, J., Metcalf, C.J.E., Gharbi, M., Venkatesan, M., Shewchuk, T., Sibley, C.H., & Guerin, P.J. 2013 Trends in
antimalarial drug use in Africa American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 13 0129

Metcalf, C.J.E., Hampson, K., Tatem, A., Grenfell, B.T., & Bjornstad, O.N. 2013 Persistence in epidemic metapopulations: quantifying the rescue eects for measles, mumps, rubella and whooping cough. PLoS ONE 10 e1371

Klepac, P., Metcalf, C.J.E., McLean, A., Hampson, K. 2013 Towards the endgame and beyond: complexities and
challenges for the elimination of infectious diseases. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society 368 20120137

Cutts, F.T., Lessler, J. & Metcalf, C.J.E. 2013 Measles elimination: progress, challenges and implications for rubella control Expert Reviews Vaccines 12 917-932

Lessler, J. & Metcalf, C.J.E. 2013 Balancing evidence and uncertainty when considering rubella vaccine introduction. PLoS ONE 8, e67639

Vaupel, J.W., Missov, T. & Metcalf, C.J.E. 2013 Optimal Semelparity. Plos One 8, e57133

Metcalf, C.J.E., McMahon, S.M., Salguero-Gomez, R. & Jongejans, E. 2012. IPMpack: an R package for Integral
Projection Models Methods in Ecology and Evolution 4, 195-200

Mideo, N., Reece, S.E., Smith, A.L., & Metcalf, C.J.E. 2012. The Cinderella Syndrome: Why do malaria-infected
red blood cells burst at midnight? Trends in Parasitology 29, 10-16

Gharbi, M., Flegg, J., Hubert, V., Kendjo, E., Metcalf, C.J.E., Bertaux, L., Guerin, P.J., Le Bras, J. & Members
of the French National Reference Centre for Imported Malaria Study. 2013 Longitudinal study assessing the return
of chloroquine susceptibility of Plasmodium falciparum in isolates from travellers returning from West and Central
Africa between 2000-2011. Malaria Journal 12, 35

Metcalf, C.J.E., Cohen, C., Lessler, J., McAnerney, J.M., Ntsohe, G.M., Puren, A., Klepac, P., Tatem, A., Grenfell,
B.T., & Bjrnstad, O.N. 2013 Implications of spatially heterogeneous vaccination coverage for the risk of Congenital
Rubella Syndrome in South Africa J. Roy. Soc. Interface 10, 20120756

Gharbi, M., Flegg, J., Hubert, V., Kendjo, E., Metcalf, C.J.E., Bertaux, L., Guerin, P.J., Le Bras, J. & Members
of the French National Reference Centre for Imported Malaria Study. 2013 Longitudinal study assessing the return
of chloroquine susceptibility of Plasmodium falciparum in isolates from travellers returning from West and Central
Africa between 2000-2011. Malaria Journal 12, 35

Metcalf, C.J.E., Lessler, J., Klepac, P., Morice, A., Grenfell, B.T., Bjrnstad, O.N. 2012 Structured models of
infectious disease: inference with discrete data Theoretical Population Biology 82, 275-282

CJE Metcalf, J Lessler, P Klepac, F Cutts, BT Grenfell. Epidemiology and infection.

Klepac, P., Bjrnstad, O.N., Metcalf, C.J.E. & Grenfell, B.T. 2012. Optimizing reactive responses to outbreaks of
immunizing infections: balancing case management and vaccination PLoS One 7, e41428

Cutts, F.T.,Metcalf, C.J.E., Lessler, J. & Grenfell, B.T. 2012. Rubella vaccination: must not be business as usual
The Lancet Correspondence 380, 217-218

Lessler, J., Metcalf, C.J.E., & Grenfell, B.T. 2012. Measurement of vaccine derived immunity: how do we use all the data? Expert Reviews Vaccines 11, 747-749

Metcalf, C.J.E., Long, G.H., Mideo, N. Forrester, J.D., Bjrnstad, O.N., Graham, A.L. 2012. Revealing mechanisms
underlying variation in malaria parasite virulence: eective propagation and host control of uninfected red blood cell supply. J. R. Soc. Interface 9, 2804-2813

Metcalf, C.J.E., Lessler, J., Klepac, P., Cutts, F., Grenfell, B.T. 2012.Impact of birth rate, seasonality and transmission rate on minimum levels of coverage needed for rubella vaccination Epidemiology and Infection 140, 2290-2301

Lessler, J., Metcalf, C.J.E., Grais, R.F., Luquero, F.J., Cummings, D.A.T., Grenfell, B.T. 2011. Measuring the
performance of vaccination programs using cross-sectional surveys PloS Medicine 8, e1001110

Metcalf, C.J.E., Graham, A.L., Huijben, S.L., Barclay, V.C., Long, G., Grenfell, B.T., Read, A.F., Bjrnstad, O.N.
2011. Partitioning regulatory mechanisms of within host malaria dynamics using the eective propagation number
Science 333, 984-988

Metcalf, C.J.E., Bjrnstad, O.N., Klepac, P., Ferrari, M., Bharti, N., Lopez-Gatell, H. & Grenfell, B.T. 2011. The
epidemiology of rubella in Mexico: transients, seasonality, and spatial dynamics. Epidemiology and Infection 139,
1029-1038

CJE Metcalf, P Klepac, M Ferrari, RF Grais, A Djibo, BT Grenfell. Epidemiology and infection.

McMahon, S.M., Metcalf, C.J.E., & Woodall, C. 2011. High-dimensional coexistence of temperate tree species:
functional traits, demographic rates, life-history stages, and their physical context PloS One 6, e16253

Metcalf, C.J.E., Muayco-Escate, C., Chowell, G., Grenfell, B.T. & Bjrnstad, O.N. 2011. Rubella meta-population
dynamics and importance of spatial coupling to the risk of Congenital Rubella Syndrome in Peru J. R. Soc. Interface
8, 369-376

Clark, J.S., Bell, D.M., Chu, C., Courbaud, B., Dietze, M.C., Hersh, M., HilleRisLambers, J., Ibanez, I., LaDeau,
S., McMahon, S., Metcalf, C.J.E., Mohan, J.E., Moran, E., Pangle, L., Pearson, S.F., Salk, C.F., Shen, Z., Valle,
D.R., Wycko, P. 2010 High dimensional coexistence based on individual variation: a synthesis of evidence Ecol.
Monogr. 80, 569

Childs, D.Z., Metcalf, C.J.E., & Rees, M. 2010 Evolutionary bet-hedging in the real world: empirical evidence and
challenges revealed by plants Proc. R. Soc. B 277, 3055-3064

Rees, M., Metcalf, C.J.E. & Childs, D.Z. 2010. Commentary on Olofsson et al. 2010. Bet-hedging as an evolutionary game: the trade-o between egg size and number Proc. Roy. Soc. B. 277, 1149-1151

James S Clark, Dave Bell, Michael Dietze, Michelle Hersh, Ines Ibanez, S LaDeau, Sean McMahon, Jessica Metcalf, Emily Moran, Luke Pangle, Mike Wolosin. The Oxford handbook of applied Bayesian analysis. Oxford University Press, New York, New York, USA 2010/3/18

Metcalf, C.J.E., Bjrnstad, O.N., Grenfell, B.T., & Andreasen, V. 2009 Seasonality and comparative dynamics of
six childhood infections in pre-vaccination Copenhagen. Proc. Roy. Soc. B. 276, 4111-4118

Metcalf, C.J.E., Rees, M., Buckley, Y.M., & Sheppard, A.W. 2009. Seed predators determine the evolutionarily
stable flowering strategy in the invasive plant Carduus nutans. Evol. Ecol. 23, 893-906

Metcalf, C.J.E., Horvitz, C.C., Tuljapurkar, S. & Clark, D.A. 2009 A time to grow and a time to die: a new way
to analyze the dynamics of size, light, age and death of tropical trees. Ecology 90, 2766-2778

Metcalf, C.J.E., Clark, J.S., & McMahon, S.M. 2009 Modeling tree mortality as a non-parametric function of
diameter and growth, with prior weights on mortality of large trees. Canad. J. Forest. Res. 39, 1677-1687

Koons, D.N., Pavard, S, Baudisch, A, & Metcalf, C.J.E. 2009 Is Life-History Buering or Lability Adaptive in
Stochastic Environments? Oikos 118, 972-980

Metcalf, C.J.E. & Mitchell-Olds, T. 2009 Life-history in a model system: opening the black box with Arabidopsis
thaliana Ecology Letters 12, 593-600

Metcalf, C.J.E., Stephens, D., Rees, M., Louda, S.M. & Keeler, K.H. 2009 Understanding allocation of resources
between vegetative and sexual reproduction: Using Bayesian inference to capture interdependent demography with
incomplete observations. J. Appl. Stat. 58, 143-170.

Rees, M., Metcalf, C.J.E. & Childs, D.Z. 2010. When Worlds collide: reconciling models, data, and analysis Israel
Journal of Ecology and Evolution 55, 227-231

Metcalf, C.J.E., Clark. J.S. & Clark, D.A. 2009. Tree growth inference and prediction when the point of measurement changes: modeling around buttresses in tropical forests. J. Trop. Ecol. 25,1-12.

Koons, D.N., Metcalf, C.J.E., & Tuljapurkar, S. 2008. Evolution of delayed reproduction in uncertain environments: a life history perspective. Am. Nat. 172, 797-805

McMahon, S.M., & Metcalf, C.J.E. 2008. Transient sensitivities of non-indigenous shrub species indicate complicated invasion dynamics Biol. Inv. 10, 833-846.

Metcalf, C.J.E., Rees, M., Rose, K.E., Sheppard, A., & Grubb, P.J. 2008. Evolution of
flowering decisions in a stochastic, density-dependent environment. PNAS 105, 10466-10470.

Pavard, S., Metcalf, C.J.E., & Heyer, E. 2008. Senescence of Reproduction may explain Adaptive Menopause in Humans: a Test of the “Mother” Hypothesis Am. J. Phys. Anth. 136, 194-203.

Metcalf, C.J.E., Hampson, K., Gray, A., & Andrianirina, R. 2007. Herpetofaunal assemblages on seven offshore islands of Northwestern Madagascar. Trop. Zool. 20, 151-161.

Metcalf, C.J.E., & Pavard, S. 2007. All paths to tness lead through demography Trends Ecol. Evol. 22, 563-564.

Pavard, S., & Metcalf, C.J.E. 2007. Negative selection on BRCA1 susceptibility alleles sheds light on the population genetics of late-onset diseases and aging theory PloS-One 11, e1206.

Metcalf, C.J.E., Hampson, K., & Koons, D.N. 2007. What happens when density increases? Sudden and gradual
infux into refuges and implications for conservation. Animal Cons. 10, 478-486.

Metcalf, C.J.E., & Koons, D.N. 2007. Environmental Autocorrelation and the Evolution of Survival Proc. Roy.
Soc. B. 1622, 2153-2160.

Metcalf, C.J.E., & Pavard, S. 2007. Why evolutionary biologists should be demographers Trends Ecol. Evol. 22,
205-212.

Metcalf, C.J.E., Hampson, K., Andriamizava, A., Andrianirina, R., Cairnes, T., Gray, A. Ramiarisoa, C., & Sondotra,
H. 2007. The beaches of Northwest Madagascar: an important nesting habitat for green (Chelonia mydas) and
hawksbill (Eretmochelys imbricata) turtles. Oryx 41, 232-238.

Rees, M., Childs, D.Z., Metcalf, C.J.E., Rose, K.E., Sheppard, A., Grubb, P.J., & Ellner, S.P. 2006. Evolution of seed dormancy and delayed owering in monocarpic plants: selective interactions in a stochastic environment Am. Nat. 168, E53-E71.

Metcalf, C.J.E., Bayly, N., Bisoa, M., Rabearivony, J., & Stewart-Jones, A. 2005. Edge eect from paths on two chameleon species in Madagascar African J. Herp. 54, 99-102.