Predictability in a highly stochastic system: final size of measles epidemics in small populations

Caudron, Q., Mahmud, A.S., Metcalf, C.J.E., Gottfreosson, M., Viboud, C., Cli, A.D., Grenfell, B.T. 2015
Predictability in highly stochastic systems: measles in small populations. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 12: 20141125